But the high growth rate of population has had an adverse effect n the development of education. The effect of population aging on economic growth nicole maestas kathleen mullen david powell rand rand rand october 2014 preliminary draft. But it is possible that the effect of population growth on economic development has been exaggerated, or that no single generalization is justified for countries differing as widely in growth rates, densities, and income levels as do todays less developed areas. The conclusion that rapid population growth has slowed development is by no means straightforward or clearcut see box 5. It notes4 that population aging is likely to bring fiscal problems to governments because there will be relatively fewer workers to make payments to the government, while there will be more retirees expecting financial support from the.
Pdf the impact of population growth on economic growth and. It is sometimes said that a growing population helps in economic development by providing an expanding markets for goods. The implications of this possibility are particularly alarming. For example, the study by canlas 2004 found a significant negative relationship between population growth and economic development. The effect of fertility reduction on economic growth. Pdf the paper examines the link between population and per capita economic growth, and poverty, using the interesting case study of uganda. Worldwide, the largest absolute increases are yet to come. The process of population growth is exogenous in order to process income generation, accumulation, technical progress and institutional change srinivasan, 1987. The relationship between population and economic growth in. What are the causes and effects of population growth. A wellknown stylized fact of this literature is that the estimated effects of population growth measures on economic growth are not robust, varying between being. But on a more general scale, population growth can strain economies unless there are enough people and resources to support it. The relationship between economic growth and population.
There is continuous increase in school and campus going students due to the increase in population. First, we will examine the effect of population growth on the economic development of a country. We now take up the effects of economic development. Herrin and pernia 2004 noted that there has been a remarkable population growth in the philippines since the 1970s. Population aging is widely expected to have detrimental effects on aggregate economic growth. The effects of population growth on economic development. This research explores the effect of population growth on the economic growth of nigeria over the period of 1981 to 2015.
The paper examines the link between population and per capita economic growth, and poverty, using the interesting case study of uganda. Gill 1992 examined the relationship between the population growth and economic development for the economy of india. Population and economic growth discourse in ethiopia tsegaye tegenu october 27, 2011 the worlds 7 billionth baby will be born on 31 october 2011. Researchers, policymakers, governments, civil society and social medias are expressing their concern over the effects of. Article information, pdf download for effects of population growth on the. The effect of population growth on economic growth. Does indias population growth have a positive effect on. Pdf population growth and economic growth in nigeria. Many studies have sought to gauge the impact of population growth on economic growth. When population grows faster than gnp, the standard of living of the people does not improve. First, rapid population growth tends to increase income disparities between udcs and developed countries because the per capita incomes decline with growth in numbers in the former. He concludes that up to some extent population growth is good but large population puts pressure on resources within the economy. The relationship between population growth and economic development has been the main concern in the recent decade. So they adopted one child policy for economic growth.
Since the early 1990s, many analyses of the effect of population on eco nomic outcomes have. In the abstract, population growth can have both positive and negative effects, but the data presented below demonstrate that latinos are contributing disproportionately to u. The impact of population growth on economic growth and. In fact rapid population growth has been obstructing economic growth in developing countries like india where since 1951 population has been growing at a relatively high rate. The existing state of knowledge does not warrant any clearcut generalization as to the effect of population growth on economic development in. Population growth and economic development in bangladesh. By 2030, that number is expected to grow to 20 percent of the population. Economic growth can be defined as the increase in the inflationadjusted market value of the goods and services produced by an economy over time. J11,j14,j23,j26,o47 abstract population aging is widely assumed to have detrimental effects on economic growth yet there is.
Further, the economy will also be controlled by a large population because a large market has to be supplied. Population growth and economic development of a country. Health, in the form of life expectancy, has appeared in many crosscountry growth regressions, and investigators generally find that it has a significant positive effect on the rate of economic growth see bloom and canning 2000, 2001. What is the effect of low population growth on economic. However, the relationship between economic growth and population growth appears to have. The there is no consensus on the effects of rapid population growth consequences on economic growth in developing countries.
In turn, increasing employment has been crucial in delivering higher growth. Effects of economic development on population growth. A high rate of population growth not only has an adverse impact on improvement in food supplies, but also intensifies the constraints on development of savings. This research investigates about the relation between demographic dynamics and economic growth, illustrating both orthodox and heterodox theories. The effect of population aging on economic growth siepr. In addition to the potential effects of population growth on economic. By paula campbell roberts when the postworld war ii babies entered the workforce in the 1970s, about 10 percent of the us population was over age 65. The effect of population aging on economic growth, the labor force and productivity nicole maestas, kathleen j. On the one hand, through rapid population growth, there will be some economic development. Mullen and david powell abstract population aging is widely assumed to have detrimental effects on economic growth yet there is little empirical evidence about the magnitude of its effects.
Increased diversity and human capital are among the positive effects of population growth. The relationship between population growth and economic growth is controversial. One more person can increase not only one pair of hands for labor but also one mouth for consumption. Please do not cite without permission abstract population aging is widely expected to have detrimental effects on aggregate economic growth. Under certain conditions moderate population growth can be beneficial. Impact of indias population growth on economic development.
The effect of population growth on the socioeconomic. The effect of population aging on economic growth, the. The number of schools, teachers and physical facilities are to be increased in the population to the increase in the number of students. Population aging is widely assumed to have detrimental effects on economic growth yet there is little empirical evidence about the magnitude of its effects. Notes on social and economic effects of population growth.
However, we have little empirical evidence about the actual existence or magnitude of such effects. But this huge population is a threat for future economic growth of china. As chapter 4 showed, in europe, japan, and north america economic growth has been accompanied by moderate population growth, which. Pdf the effect of population growth on economic growth.
Similarly, higher population growth from the mid1980s onwards was matched by relatively high economic growth with the exception of the early 1990s recession. Economic growth generates job opportunities and hence stronger demand for labour, the main and often the sole asset of the poor. The net impact of the aging of our population will be slower economic growth. Corruption and economic growth 69 an educated labor force is better at learning, creating, and implementing new tech.
Effects of population growth on the economic development of. The population growth rate affects both the consumption and the productivity of a countrys economy. Effects of population growth on the economic development. The result indicates population growth adversely related to per capita gdp growth, which means rapid. The following points highlight the six main effects of population growth on the indian economy. Pdf this research examines the effects of population growth on the economic development between the two developed and developing.
Data on gdp and exchange rate were obtained from central bank of nigeria. The negative effects of rapid population growth appear to have weighed most. Let us make an indepth study of the effects of economic development on population growth of a country. Tanzanias population at the last census 2012 almost tr iples the size in 1967 first post independence population census. The effect of population growth on the socio economic development with abstract, chapter 15, references and questionnaire. So far, we have studied the effects of population growth on economic development. With lower population growth you can expect there to be a lot less younger people and a lot more older people over time. What does an aging population mean for economic growth and. But their fears have proved unfounded because population growth in western europe has led to its rapid industrialization. The assumption that of rapid rapid population growth was detrimenfal prevailed in the 1950s and population 1960swhen the literature emphasized lack of capital and savings.
Population growth and economic development has a negative relationship. The prime objective of this paper is to find out the impact of population growth on economic development of pakistan, in order to be clear this paper have added important variable which are related to population growth and affect economic growth. In this paper, we exploit differential aging patterns at the state level in the united states between 1980 and 2010. Effects of population growth on economic growth in asian developing countries tutor. Second, rapid population growth encourages international migration. Impact of population growth on economic growth in africa. Strong growth in the global economy over the past 10 years means that the majority of the worlds workingage population is now in employment.
The role of population on economic growth and development. It is conventionally measured as the percent rate of increase in real gross domestic product, or real gdp growth is usually calculated in real terms i. The average schooling years in the total population over age 25 is used. This paper starts from the observation that many u. Rapid population growth also affects udcs in relation to the world economy in a number of ways. How to evaluate the effect of population on a countryseconomy. Pdf on mar 20, 2016, bhanu phani krishna and others published effect of population growth on economic development in india find, read and cite all the research you need on researchgate. It is often the negative effects, such as overcrowding, food and supply shortages and environmental damage that. Pdf effect of population growth on economic development. China is over populated country and there population is over 1. In general, population growth is driven by a higher birth rate than death rate, though several smaller factors impact that ratio comparison.
The assumption that there is a uniquely correct or at least a. Although some said the positive effects were very minimal and weak, the economists were still able to use a simulation model for ldcs and report that economic growth did occur. Effect of population on resources population growth was a concern as far back as 1798, when english economist thomas malthus predicted that it would eventually reduce overall living standards. If the population growth is low enough, there will be a large population of old people, with an economy in disarray because th.
1251 924 384 948 611 224 205 1311 1523 169 379 849 355 579 254 651 623 184 443 447 563 1263 1595 707 872 629 653 986 145 511 994 814 1343